As summarized by Shreyas Doshi, Problem-solving is a misnomer; there is only problem trading.
Solving conveys that you’re done. That you’ve made progress. Yet, in reality, every time we solve a problem, a new one emerges.
Even though we all experience this reality at work, at home, or in relationships, we rarely embrace or incorporate it into our problem-solving framework. Incorporating emerging issues when problem trading is tricky. Our brains desire certainty and problem solving is a much easier narrative to tell ourselves.
Solving a problem helps us feel accomplished. It helps us feel like we’ve made progress toward our goal.
However, we’re rarely putting a problem completely to bed. Instead, we’re inheriting new situations and environments when we solve an existing problem.
The best way I’ve found to manage this reality is by leveraging the known unknown framework. Used often at the beginning of projects, it’s also equally useful at the point of ‘solving’, or better said at the point of ‘trading’.
The two most insightful quadrants within the framework I’ve found to be helpful in understanding what I’ll be inheriting are the bottom two - known unknowns and unknown unknowns. These quadrants are the most ambiguous and the riskiest. By focusing on them, I’ve been able to establish a strategy that prepares me for the unforeseen.
Let’s walk through each in turn.
Getting Comfortable with Known Unknowns
Operating in the known/unknown framework was stated directly by Donald Rumsfeld when he said:
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
Rumsfeld’s point highlights that though there are a lot of things we’re aware of, there are still many that we’re not cognizant of. The things we’re aware of, but know little about, are the known unknowns, whereas the things we’re not aware of and do not know exist, are the unknown unknowns.
Known unknowns (KUs) are much easier to discern, as we can use our experience to enumerate the things we can’t quantify or qualify. Simply the act of reflecting on experience or doing some basic diligence can make a huge impact on making good decisions or taking productive actions.
As an example, take purchasing real estate -
A common thing to do when acquiring property is doing an inspection. As part of the inspection, you’ll uncover several obvious things you’ll need to negotiate on. However, the inspector doesn’t go into detail on some major items, like the AC unit, roof, or water heater. This leaves you with incomplete information. Based on the inspector’s report, you can easily discern that though you may not know the exact condition, you know enough to know that at some point you’ll need to do something.
This is where you leverage intuition and experience when making your final decision. Knowing that you are going to be inheriting some problems, you can proactively develop solutions as you explore the new problem space.
This is one of the biggest benefits of real estate and similar arenas. Because the problem space is constrained, it’s easy to predict the emerging complexity.
Ignoring Unknown Unknowns
When the problem space is ambiguous and less constrained, the probability of complexity emerging from unknown unknowns (UUs) becomes more likely. This makes problem trading riskier.
A big source of the issue is that because we’re not aware of them at the onset of our work, we overlook the UUs after we deliver. This loss of visibility places blinders on us and keeps us from discovering what ultimately might affect chances for success.
Let’s say, for example, you’ve brought a new product to market. As much experience and research you have, you will still have gaps at the point of launch that you didn’t consider. As you track your key performance metrics, there will naturally be some drivers of success or failure that were overlooked.
The key with UUs is to look past the surface metrics and dig deep into what might be a cause.
Going in Eyes Wide Open
In my experience, there are two solutions to managing KUs and UUs: proactively mitigate and continuously reflect.
For KUs, proactively developing mitigation plans in case the known unknown emerges is helpful for a few reasons: it brings you confidence that you can manage an unknown and it gives you more clarity on how you might manage it when it arises.
For UUs, we must go beyond the surface through deliberate reflection after we have made a decision. Too many times we cease exploring after something has been delivered to the wild. We pay a lot of attention to our vanity or top-level metrics, but don’t take a moment to pause and look beyond. Pausing and reflecting forces us to look at the solution and its impact in the face. When staring them down, the unknowns become known.
Mileage May Vary
Developing mitigation plans or knowing when to reflect is dependent on the constraints within the problem space.
In some scenarios, constraints will be clear. For instance, in real estate, the facts are all available publicly or can be uncovered through inspection. This way they say - you make your money before the deal. When you have this type of clarity, focus more on mitigation plans.
In other instances, where problem spaces are significantly less clear and the boundaries of the space are ambiguous, you need another strategy. You’ll likely need to ebb and flow between diving into the problem and launching a solution. Get into a learning loop asap so you can begin iterating and uncovering the UUs. With each iteration, you’ll learn more and convert the UUs into knowns.
Key Takeaway
In a jist, when problem-solving, consider the trade that you’re making and what you’re inheriting when making progress.
Asses the boundaries of the problem space
If the problem space you’re inheriting is constrained, spend time on mitigation planning
If the problem space you’re inheriting is ambiguous, spend more time on reflection and getting to learning faster
If you can do this proactively, you’ll better understand what you’re inheriting and have confidence when entering into a new problem space.
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